We are presenting a probabilistic approach to proactively adjust drilling parameters (which can be uncertain) in real time to help ensure that the actual drilling path overlaps the target drilling path to the maximum extent. The planned well path is initially adjusted by a probabilistic formation earth model (EM) for maximum production potential and then adjusted to help improve well path smoothness to allow the passage of tubular strings. Drilling parameters and EM data can be updated in real time during drilling operations. A new bit-wear model is coupled with data analytics, using real-time data to predict bit wear and rate of penetration (ROP), which are further used for well path estimation. Statistical methods are applied to quantify the uncertainty of the predicted actual well path.
Considering the uncertainty associated with petrophysical properties and drilling parameters, the overlap probability between actual and target well paths was computed and used as feedback for drilling parameter adjustments. This closed-loop feedback process enables proactive control of the actual well path. The drilling path simulation indicates that the trajectory resulting from using this new control method provides better reservoir access and maintains dogleg severity at an acceptable level.